Devex Invested: The race to lead the African Development Bank heats up

For the past decade, the African Development Bank has been Akinwumi Adesina’s bank. The bespectacled leader known for his signature bow ties led the bank to considerable growth. Today, AfDB’s capital is $318 billion, more than triple what it was when he took up the job.

But as his second term expires, the race for his successor is on. That man or woman is set to inherit the bank at a pivotal moment for the continent and the institution. African leaders are seeking to reduce their dependence on aid as budgets shrivel and the bank tries to raise capital for its fund for the lowest-income countries. That may face headwinds – in his recent “skinny” budget, U.S. President Donald Trump took aim at that fund and proposed eliminating the United States’ contribution.

So who might succeed Adesina in leading AfDB? My colleague Ayenat Mersie profiled the five candidates vying for the job ahead of the election on May 29.

Samuel Maimbo: He’s a self-proclaimed “unconventional candidate” who believes that AfDB needs a leader to overhaul how the institution works from the inside out, which includes staying in Abidjan — the bank’s headquarters — and working through budget, talent, and the plumbing to speed up decision-making at the bank. If that sounds familiar, it's because it echoes many of World Bank President Ajay Banga’s early efforts at his own institution. Maimbo coincidentally worked at the World Bank for two decades, including as chief of staff to Banga and former president David Malpass. Maimbo’s vision? Shifting away from aid dependence by “doubling down on revenue generation,” including by tapping local pension funds and African businesses.

Amadou Hott: He’s a former Senegalese government minister, AfDB vice president, and sovereign wealth fund CEO. The economist says he’ll focus on streamlining the bank to make it more efficient and better positioned to support the private sector. He believes the bank should help countries improve their tax systems, and in helping build investment tools that bring the continent’s wealthy individuals into development finance. AfDB should also be a connector and a facilitator — a trusted partner for governments and investors alike.

Bajabulile “Swazi” Tshabalala: She’s served as chief finance officer and until recently a senior vice president at AfDB, and if elected she would be the first woman to lead the institution. She helped pioneer hybrid capital at the institution, blending elements of debt and equity, allowing the bank to raise long-term financing beyond shareholder contributions, she tells Devex. Her vision: A bank that prioritizes implementation not just approvals, that returns to its founding purpose of infrastructure investment, expands regional partnerships, and embraces financial innovation.

Sidi Ould Tah: A Mauritanian economist, former minister, and president of the Khartoum-based Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa, he wants the bank to be more assertive in unlocking the continent's own financial potential. His vision: A bank focused on activating private capital, better coordinating financial institutions on the continent, and improving private capital mobilization. Two pledges: A high level forum on retooling financial instruments and de-risking investments; and consultations with youth, women, and think tanks.

Abbas Mahamat Tolli: He’s a former governor of the Bank of Central African States and president of the Development Bank of Central African States. The former Chadian minister of finance and infrastructure wants the bank to focus on infrastructure, food security, and economic self-reliance. His focus: The bank needs to do more, move faster, and work smarter.

Read: Inside the race to lead the African Development Bank

See also: African Development Bank hopefuls outline competing visions

Related: Amadou Hott — African Development Bank should focus on jobs, innovation (Pro)

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And on May 28, as part of our event series leading up to the Financing for Development conference in Seville, Spain, we’ll be joined by Vera Songwe, Homi Kharas, and Rick Samans to discuss how MDBs' unique ability to multiply scarce taxpayer funding through capital markets makes them the last viable financing vehicles standing in this time of dwindling bilateral aid. Save your spot now.

IDA know?

Back in November, the United Kingdom government pledged nearly £2 billion to the World Bank’s International Development Association, the bank’s fund for the lowest-income countries. But in February, the Labour government announced it was cutting the aid budget — and that contribution is now under review, Devex contributor Susannah Birkwood reports.

“This decision is the first sign of the devastating implications of the Prime Minister’s massive cut to the international aid budget,” says Adrian Lovett, executive director for the U.K., Middle East, and Asia Pacific at the ONE Campaign. “Unless the 40% aid cut is reversed, there simply will not be enough money to do this without taking funds from other life-saving work.”

But some experts think the U.K. could find ways to meet the pledge, even if it means spreading out payments, offering loans or guarantees, or supporting IDA in other ways. Maybe this is all a negotiating tactic? That’s what Ian Mitchell of the Center for Global Development suggests, adding that it was designed to put pressure on the Home Office to reduce spending on hosting refugees and asylum-seekers domestically, which accounted for about 20% of aid spending in 2024.

We’ll see what happens, but U.K. development minister Jenny Chapman told members of Parliament last week that multilateral funds would likely face cuts. “In a world where we’re losing almost half the budget, everybody gets a cut basically,” she said. So maybe don’t hold your breath for a full contribution.

Read: Will the UK renege on its pledge to IDA?

Another new bond?

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction is launching a new financial instrument that tries to turn disaster prevention into a win-win. The new bond, called a contingent resilience-linked bond, tries to incentivize disaster protection by reducing borrowing costs for municipalities and countries that meet specific resilience targets, such as building sea walls or putting electrical lines underground, within a certain time frame, my colleague Jesse Chase-Lubitz reports.

The aim is to then attract private capital into climate adaptation, an area that has historically been underinvested since it doesn’t usually generate a profit. The bond structure would allow issuers to lower their long-term financial risk while encouraging resilient infrastructure.

It’s still early days but one of the people behind the idea, Mathieu Verougstraete, head of infrastructure and finance at UNDRR’s resilience unit, tells Devex that too much of financing is focused on disaster risk. “Much more overlooked is how to invest prior to the disaster to reduce the likelihood that it will happen,” he says.

But some experts are skeptical that this new instrument will work. Finding an institution that will fully guarantee these types of bonds is going to be difficult, and “evidence shows that the market does not price partial guarantees appropriately,” says Sebastian Espinosa, managing director at White Oak Advisory, which advises governments and public sector institutions on sovereign finance and debt management.

Espinosa is also concerned that the instrument is extremely complex and thus less likely to be widely implemented.

From our archives: How to make climate disasters pay (Pro)

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An ADB update

Last week, we wrote about how the Asian Development Bank, which had branded itself “Asia and the Pacific’s climate bank” seemed to be shying away from that title. After that piece was published, an ADB spokesperson responded to our earlier request for comment — saying that “ADB is fully committed to addressing long-term development challenges, including climate change. Climate remains a key focus in our long-term strategy, as one of five priority areas.”

The spokesperson went on to say that it had “updated its corporate positioning from ‘Climate Bank of Asia and the Pacific’ to ‘Solving Complex Challenges Together’” on March 5, shortly after its new president took office. “By introducing our new positioning, we emphasize our determination to help our members address their complex development challenges in all five priority areas, including climate change.”

ICYMI: Is ADB still Asia and the Pacific’s climate bank?

What we’re reading

The chimera of private finance for development. [The Economist]

European nations back $250 million African private credit fund. [Bloomberg]

Millennium Challenge Corporation’s acting CEO resigns. [Devex]

Trump’s “big beautiful bill” clears key committee, hurting foundations. [Devex]

Who’s funding the World Health Organization? [Devex Pro]

Jesse Chase-Lubitz contributed to this edition of Devex Invested.