Funding cuts and culture wars: What the German election means for aid

After swingeing cuts to aid in the United States and some parts of Europe, the spotlight is now on Germany. Europe’s largest economy is currently the world’s second-biggest aid donor, but with cuts in the U.S., Germany might step up to take the lead. However, following recent elections, experts predict that Germany too will cut its aid budget and refocus its spending on areas of “national interest.” The independence of the country’s main development agency, BMZ, could even be at risk. Germany spent nearly $38 billion on official development assistance in 2023, the latest year for which there is official OECD data available, making it the biggest donor behind the U.S. on nearly $65 billion. Its spending has been falling since then, however, with more than €1 billion of cuts in 2024 and another €2 billion worth of proposed cuts for 2025. Given the current political situation, what will Germany do? “The world needs a strong signal from the new German government that Germany wants to pick up on the responsibility globally that is now given to them,” said Åsa Månsson, executive director of VENRO, a network of German NGOs working on humanitarian and development issues. “Germany needs to show that they will provide the necessary leadership and not cut funding ever more in these areas.” Yet the federal elections in February may well spell further gloom for German aid. The election resulted in a swing to the right, with the center-right Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, winning the biggest share of the vote, followed by the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AFD. Ongoing negotiations are expected to result in a coalition government between CDU and center-left Social Democrats, or SPD. The SPD manifesto committed to spending at least 0.7% of gross national income on aid, and to maintaining an independent BMZ. But CDU would be the biggest and most influential party in government, and its manifesto did not make those commitments. The political calculus has also changed in the months since both manifestoes were written, according to Stephan Klingebiel, a political scientist at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability. Recent cuts across other donors ― including the U.S., the U.K., Belgium and the Netherlands ― could make it harder for German political leaders to justify a large aid budget. Due to the situation in the U.S., the government will also need more money for security spending. Experts who spoke to Devex are therefore anticipating aid cuts under the next government, including the possible loss of the 0.7% of GNI commitment. The question is how deep the cuts will be ― figures on that will likely emerge as part of a proposed government budget in early summertime ― and what the remaining money will be spent on. While SPD is more focused on the Sustainable Development Goals, CDU said it wants to focus development spending in areas of German national interest, such as migration management, security, and the promotion of international trade. Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader who will almost certainly be Germany’s next chancellor, has threatened to withdraw aid from countries that do not cooperate on the return of undocumented migrants ― a policy initially proposed by AFD. He has also insisted that aid spending must be in Germany’s economic interest. For example, that might mean prioritizing spending through German organizations, ditching the principle of “untied aid,” according to Klingebiel. Or it might mean working more with the private sector. CDU also said it wants to bring Germany’s development programming, currently managed by BMZ, together with its humanitarian work, currently led by the foreign ministry, in order to improve efficiency. That might mean bringing BMZ under the roof of the foreign ministry ― a scenario that Klingebiel said he wouldn’t describe as “likely” but, perhaps for the first time in recent memory, “possible.” Meanwhile, AFD is now the second-biggest party in the German Parliament, the Bundestag. Among other things, the party advocates for a reduction in funding to NGOs, no climate funding, and the cancellation of gender-focused programs or anything else considered ― in its own words ― “woke.” Although AFD is expected to be excluded from the governing coalition, it may still influence government policy; experts told Devex that the far-right party’s rising popularity has allowed it to shape the agenda. One example is the migration cooperation policy that was picked up by Merz. As has happened elsewhere, the populist party has also pinpointed particular programs that it sees as controversial to whip up skepticism around aid and claim that it’s a waste of money. After AFD criticized German aid funding for bicycle lanes in Peru, for example, misinformation started circulating online that the funding had amounted to €315 million ― eight times more than the real figure. The challenge for aid advocates in this environment will be to protect the quantity and quality of German aid as much as possible, and ensure that development issues remain on the agenda. One avenue might be the opposition. Together, the Green party and left-wing Die Linke hold nearly 25% of the seats in the new Parliament. Both parties support the 0.7% target and have committed to the U.N.’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. “When looking at their manifestoes and looking at their politics over the past few years, they’re rather close to what we are working for and what we are fighting for,” Månsson noted. “That is an interesting dimension for our work in the coming years and provides an opportunity in various ways.”