Tariffs and aid cuts jolt Africa’s growth — but the overall outlook is upbeat

As U.S. tariffs hit 47 African countries and aid dries up, the African Development Bank is pushing new ways to finance Africa’s future — from diaspora bonds to making sure companies pay their fair share of taxes.

By Ayenat Mersie // 29 May 2025

Africa’s economic growth forecast has taken a hit: U.S. tariff hikes, a deepening global trade war, and the fallout from dismantled Western aid programs, including the U.S. Agency for International Development, have forced a downward revision of the continent’s economic outlook, according to the African Economic Outlook 2025 report, released Tuesday.

The African Development Bank now expects growth across the continent this year to hit 3.9%, down from 4.1% projected in February. Its 2026 forecast has also dipped — from 4.4% to 4.0%.

Still, the overall picture isn’t bleak. Growth in 2025 is set to outpace that of 2024, and 21 African countries are expected to grow by more than 5%, the report notes, pointing to ongoing resilience across much of the continent.

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About the author

Ayenat Mersie
Ayenat Mersie is a Global Development Reporter for Devex. Previously, she worked as a freelance journalist for publications such as National Geographic and Foreign Policy and as an East Africa correspondent for Reuters.